The eyes of the world will be on Copenhagen in December 2009 for the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP), with the expectation that a new international climate agreement will be adopted.

Environment ministers and officials will be using the meeting to conclude the drawing of a new framework to succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which was the first global, legally binding contract to reduce greenhouses gases, and whose first commitment period will expire in 2012.

Expectations from Copenhagen

With 280 pages of negotiating text on the table, it’s clear that the negotiations will not resolve every detail and issue under consideration. However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reminds us that essential components of the political agreement that Copenhagen must deliver include:

• Ambitious and binding cuts of emissions by industrialised countries
• Further efforts to restrain emissions growth by developing countries
• Stable and predictable finance and technology support to help the developing world adapt and mitigate with a payment mechanism in place to kick start the action immediately
• A system that manages these processes and provides a legal framework.

The international landscape – China and the US

As the COP15 meetings draw closer, it has become apparent that at the end of the day, measurable progress will hinge on the co-operation of two nations – China and the United States. The two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, these two powerhouses are likely to ultimately decide the extent of the forward progress made in Copenhagen.

Chinese negotiators are clear that they will enter the COP15 negotiations with Chinese economic and development priorities at the forefront of their climate platform.

There is little doubt that a failure to compromise could jeopardise the outcome of the Copenhagen meetings before they begin. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer has summed it up, saying “If these two countries don’t cooperate further, then we’re not going to get a result.”

At the centre of the dispute is the commitment level that developing nations must make in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and China has consistently maintained that industrialised countries must shoulder the brunt of the reductions.

With China’s economy rebounding ahead of that of the US, growing trade imbalances between the two nations, and a continued need for the US to fund a domestic bailout scheme with borrowed money, the negotiating power of the US is arguably diminished.

With the centre of gravity surrounding international climate relations shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the COP15 negotiations may mark a significant change in the international community’s view about where the seat of economic power will reside in the (near) future.

At the same time, climate change has the potential to be the most divisive issue right now. Developing countries are pointing out that the developed world is responsible for the current state of affairs, and that developing countries cannot be expected to forego growth. China keeps pushing for developed countries ‘to be more generous’, both financially and in terms of technology transfer.

Nonetheless, the international landscape is increasingly interdependent and facing common challenges – first and foremost climate change. No country can meet these challenges alone.

Optimism

One of the biggest controversies of the Kyoto Protocol was that countries such as the US and Australia were unwilling to join the pact, citing economic reasons.

With Australia ratifying the Kyoto Protocol in 2007 as well as asserting new leadership in tackling climate change, however, and with President Barack Obama in the White House, there was renewed hope for an all-nation agreement.

In August this year, it was clear that governments were not on track to succeed in crafting a new deal in Copenhagen. September, however, saw the Japanese Government’s pledge to reduce emissions by 25 per cent over 1990 levels, and China’s statement that it has a serious desire for an agreement. As Yvo de Boer puts it, these actions will help to light the path before us.

Australia playing its part

Stationary energy accounts for around 50 per cent of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector, therefore, has a major role and responsibility in helping deliver the target of a 60 per cent reduction in Australia’s carbon emissions by 2050.

As a signpost along that path, the Australian Government has committed to a binding target of generating 20 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020 and the introduction of a broad-based Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Clean energy’s role

It has been demonstrated that market-based policy frameworks, such as Australia’s Mandatory Renewable Energy Target, are the best vehicles to ensure investment in the clean energy sector. By creating an enabling environment, overseas investment will flow into Australia.

The Clean Energy Council will lead a business delegation to the Copenhagen meetings to advocate for the industry’s requirements.

The way forward – financing the fight against climate change and global co-operation

There are reasons to be optimistic about climate change negotiations. However, there is much work yet to be done if we are to meet the December deadline for a global agreement on a climate change strategy.

Finding the formula to finance the fight against climate change is one of the important hurdles that must be addressed. Finding a way to bring all 190 nations on board is an unprecedented challenge, but we are seeing positive signs.

The negotiations therefore need to be focused and realistic.

Experts and leaders on COP15

“The outcomes from Copenhagen are vital in helping to shape the response from Australia as part of the global community. Only with a strong international deal will we be able to help the planet and protect Australia’s interests.”

- Shadow Minister for Climate Change, Environment and Water Greg Hunt “If [China and the US] were to come together with an agreed position at the table at Copenhagen then we will see advances being made and the rest of the world will have very little choice but to move forward with the initiative taken.”

- Scientist, explorer and conservationist Professor Tim Flannery

“If we delay action in risky circumstances, the risks just become bigger. We have to invest in the future and the future is low-carbon. – Economist and academic Lord Nicholas Stern

“Strong commitment in Copenhagen will keep human kind in control of its destiny. Lose that opportunity now and we will shortly lose it forever.”

– UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer

“I fear that because of the recession, we have lost another five years. I don’t think that Copenhagen is going to have the desired outcome, but at least I hope that it will provide a global wake-up call.” - President of the European Solar Thermal Industry Federation Olivier Drücke

“Politicians from across the political spectrum, across the globe, need to remember that we can’t expect all nations to take the same action.” - Minister for Climate Change and Water Penny Wong, speech to the Asia Society Park Avenue, New York City, September 2009

“From a technology perspective, an agreement will ideally drive dedicated investment in upgrading existing infrastructure, such as buildings to improve energy efficiency, and of course, in renewable energy generation and the technologies such as Smart Grid to support their integration into the power network.”

- Siemens Head of Energy, Australia and New Zealand Dr Bertram Ehmann